Analysts have suggested that South African producer Anglo American Platinum is unlikely to fully achieve its target of 50 per cent expansion, but others have dismissed fears that this will result in big shortfalls across the market.

Speculation that the world's largest platinum producer may not meet its goal of producing 3.5 million oz by 2006 was thought to be partially responsible for the 23-year high in platinum prices seen recently - and the debate is set to continue as the industry reacts to the forecast for the platinum market.

Angloplats is considering a re-evaluation of its expansion projects because of the high value of the rand against the US dollar, raising doubts that its stated target can be fulfilled in the specified timeframe. The firm expects to produce 2.3 million ounces this year.

Although there is concern, analysts are keen to avoid 'scare-mongering':

'The sort of scare stories you hear in the market about them dropping something like 700,000 ounces, I just don't see that', said Invetec Securities analyst Leon Esterhuizen.

'I'm not saying there's no threat', he continued, 'but I don't think it's half as big as people are trying to make out.'

Angloplats announced on Friday that it would be making a statement next month on the issue of its expansion plans, but the current situation seems to be reflective of an observation the company made when releasing its half-year reports in July.

Then, it was noted that a buoyant rand could 'affect project scheduling and the time taken to bring new profits on stream.'

Spokesman Mike Mtakati confirmed this on Friday, when he said that Angloplats 'will make a formal announcement around November this year, but it would be premature for me to comment on speculation.

Our CEO is on record as having said that if the rand strengthens further we would have to review some projects.'